Blog / Oscar Predictions 2014: Why YOU Might Be The Key To Who Wins the Academy Awards

Oscar Predictions 2014: Why YOU Might Be The Key To Who Wins the Academy Awards

The dresses, the stars, the awkward moments when someone goes off script… everyone loves watching the Oscars.

But did you know that you could have potentially impacted who wins tonight? And because of that, you might be able to predict the award-winners before any cameras start rolling?

Here’s the breakdown: most people don’t realize that the voting system for the Oscar winners is completed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. This academy is made up of more than 6,000 professionals that are somehow related to the film industry, and based on sheer personal preference from each voter. But that means that—even subconsciously or unintentionally—this voting system can be influenced by what social users are talking about.

And there’s some proof to support this theory. Recent studies from Farsite Forecast, a data analytics company, shows that the level of social media chatter around nominees strongly correlates to who wins the award. So much so, in fact, that data aficionados were able to correctly predict five of the six major categories last year (sounds like what we do!).

Thanks to the normalization of phone and tablet use (also called ‘second screens’) and our love of social media, fans are spouting off their personal picks all over the place. And that, means that certain actors and actresses for this year’s tonight are actually better positioned to win than others.

So without further ado, here’s our two top picks for the 86th Academy Awards. We’ve based this prediction both on the amount of social media content being generated for each nominee, and the amount of ZPoints ®, or social media influence, that gets generated. The influence part is key here, because we can identify not just what is being said about each Oscar nominee, but who is saying it, and what level of importance is attached to each positive review.

Our Picks:

Winner for Best Actress: Sandra Bullock

  • Most Social Media Buzz; Total ZPoints ® Score: 11, 206

Winner for Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey

  • Most Social Media Buzz; Total ZPoints ® Score: 21, 307

**Note: Many entertainment journals are predicting Cate Blanchett to win, but the social buzz begs to differ. Let’s see if social media analytics prevail!

Even if these predictions are off (the actual voting is not done by these social users, remember!) this data is still important for two reasons. One: for social media marketing purposes, this system of social media analytics can actually help give insight into advertising campaigns—giving businesses an edge over competitors into popular real-time conversations.

And two: it’s just plain fun to move from ‘speculation’ over who wins to data-driven, information-based prediction.  Call it our way of making you the star of your Oscar’s party tonight!

For more information on social media analytics and predictive tactics with ZPoints ®, contact us here.

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Analytics & Insights
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