Blog / Jeb Rises While Carly Falls: Social Insights on the Presidential Race This Week

Jeb Rises While Carly Falls: Social Insights on the Presidential Race This Week

We’re tracking several social media metrics across all presidential candidates using a consistent methodology; we’re monitoring real-time social conversations based on tags and keywords that include a candidate’s name, as well as the activity around their verified accounts on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and Google+.

Since August we’ve captured more than 15 million pieces of social content and have been analyzing data to see shifts in the race.

Read More: Iowa Caucus – Can Social Media Analytics Predict Who Will Win?

Here are some interesting shifts within the Republican race seen last week:

1. Looking at activity (social conversations discussing candidates), six candidates have separated from the rest of the field, which is consistent with data after the last debate. Within those six, Jeb saw the largest week-over-week gain while Carly saw the biggest decline. Rand saw a significant bump in activity but is still significantly behind the top six.

 

Presidential Candidates 2015-2016 Social Media Popularity

 
2. Jeb’s surge is directly connected to the explosion in Tweets in reaction to his “stuff happens” comments when talking about the UCC shootings. CNN’s Facebook post received the highest measure of influence with 165 ZPoints®, Zoomph’s proprietary measurement of influence of content in relation to a specific topic.

 

CNN Facebook post on Jeb Bus UCC Shootings

 
Can Jeb turn a negative reaction to his comments about gun violence into a positive long-term shift in momentum? We’ll see what the data says next week.

3. Carly’s decline after September’s debate is similar to trends we saw after the first debate on August 6:

  • On August 7, the day after her first great performance, she catapulted to second place in the Republican field with a 9% share-of-voice (SOV).
  • On September 15, the day before the second debate, she fell to seventh with a 4% SOV.
  • On September 17, with another great debate behind her, Carly again ranked second with an 11% SOV.
  • Data for week ending October 4th, Carly’s fallen to fourth place with a 5% SOV.

Should Carly be concerned about her decline in social media share-of-voice between debates?

If you’re interested in seeing more election data, or how Zoomph can help your influencer marketing campaigns, tweet us @Zoomph or email us at info@zoomph.com.
 

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