Election 2016: Social Media Trends the Day after the Democratic DebateOctober 15, 2015
Watching real-time social media data during the Democratic debate was fascinating. We’re monitoring social media conversations tied to each candidate (name, hashtag and handles) over the course of elections and then comparing trends to benchmarks.
Our theory is that by normalizing and analyzing conversations whereby a candidate is the main topic, we’ll uncover stats on general awareness that provides directional insight into election outcomes.
Many will refute the validity of using social media data for election outcomes, but polls are often incorrect, too—just look at what happened with polls in the UK elections earlier this year. Now, back to the US elections.
Analysts and pundits announced Hillary as the winner. However, over the duration of the debate, there were 19,036 more units of activity connected to conversations that included Bernie as a topic when compared to Hillary. Based on this measure, Bernie won, but did his momentum continue after debate night?
After pulled data for Wednesday we can confirm that yes, he won again. Bernie earned 118,035 units of activity over 24 hours versus Hillary’s 99,466.
Since we began tracking data in August, Hillary has consistently won the Democratic race. For the week ending on October 12, she had a 25% lead in activity versus Bernie. This is consistent with recent poll numbers reported on Real Clear Politics.
How did Bernie fare against Donald? He beat him, too. Trump has been the runaway leading election topic on social media. Even during the Democratic debate, and as reported by Forbes, his live tweeting helped get more mentions than Jim, Martin, and Lincoln combined. Yesterday, Donald came in third overall with 96,808 units of activity, 11% lower than his 28-day rolling average.
On the other end of the spectrum, Mike Huckabee had a surge in activity with 17,796 mentions, a 767% increase from his 28-day rolling average. Mike placed fourth overall yesterday. Well done, Mike!
The most surprising fact in the Republican data is that Carly came in eighth, trending significantly lower than her 28-day average.
Will Bernie’s momentum continue? Will Hillary reclaim her lead within the Democratic contenders? Can Donald reverse his recent downward trend? Can anybody beat Donald over the long-run? How can Carly become a relevant topic outside of her successful debate performances?
Check back here to see how the race on social media changes. You can also watch our real-time election leaderboard to see how rankings shift minute-by-minute.
If you’re interested in seeing more election data, or how Zoomph can help your influencer marketing campaigns, tweet us @Zoomph or email us at firstname.lastname@example.org.